Bartlett, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

118
FXUS64 KMEG 091107
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
607 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 607 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

- Low-end chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms exist
  tonight and Saturday for the far southern and northwestern
  counties.

- A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms is
  expected Sunday afternoon as a cold front moves through the
  region.

- Medium to high confidence remains in a dry, quiet, and slightly
  cooler than normal workweek following the Sunday frontal
  passage.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

The latest surface analysis places a stalled frontal boundary
just along the coast of the Gulf and a slow moving cold front
stretched into central Oklahoma. This gives two low end chances
of rain on opposite sides of the CWA as moisture pulls near each
boundary. There is a 10-15% PoP for our southern tier of counties
and our northwestern most counties tonight into tomorrow morning.
Temperatures will cool down, shrinking dew point depressions, but
ACAR and HRRR soundings depict dry air from the surface to about
700mb. Not expecting much development or accumulation of any
showers throughout the night.

Saturday will feature warm and slightly humid conditions, as WAA
pulls ahead of an approaching cold front. The southerly flow
profile is weak overall, so confidence is low in any showers
developing within this regime. Sunday, however, is a different
story as the aforementioned cold front will be nearing northeast
Arkansas by sunrise. From the LREF, Sunday afternoon does warrant
the Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe weather chances
with joint probabilities of muCAPE >500 J/kg and >30 kts of bulk
shear between 40-60%. With this being pre-frontal convection, you
would expect a linear storm mode, but height falls and shear
profiles remain un-impressive. A messy mode of clusters will
begin to impact the region Sunday afternoon and the region should
return to drier and cooler conditions by Monday afternoon.

Surface high pressure with northwest flow aloft will reign post
frontal resulting in slightly cooler than normal conditions. A
secondary frontal boundary looks to sink south on Wednesday, but
given projected dewpoints in the 30s and 40s for days prior, any
precipitation will struggle to form or reach the surface ahead of
this frontal boundary. The airmass behind this front is not polar
by any means, so little change will be felt. This pattern
provides medium to high confidence in a dry, benign forecast for
the workweek.

DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

MVFR/IFR CIGs are currently crawling northward across northern
MS, dropping TUP to BKN010 with the potential for a further drop
into IFR. Past forecasts depicted these CIGs making it as far
north as MEM/MKL, but current trends indicate this is now
unlikely. Therefore, VFR is expected at MEM/MKL/TUP through the
period. Winds will be light and out of the southwest, dropping to
VRB or calm after 00z Sunday through the end of the period. A few
showers will try to make their way into the region during the end
of the MEM TAF period, but confidence in coverage is too low to
mention in this TAF issuance.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Fire weather concerns will remain low over the next several days.
Minimum relative humidity will drop below 40 percent on Monday
and Tuesday, following wetting rainfall over parts of the Mid-
South on Sunday. Warm and predominately dry conditions will
prevail next week.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...JAB